Global Air Cargo Demand Increased by 3.4% in 2025

The International Air Transport Association (IATA) has published its overall 2025 results along with global air cargo data for December 2025. According to the announced figures, the sector demonstrated steady growth throughout the year, delivering strong performance within the balance of supply and demand.

According to IATA data, total air cargo demand in 2025, measured in cargo tonne-kilometers (CTK), increased by 3.4% compared to 2024. For international operations, this increase was recorded at 4.2%.

Capacity also continued to expand. Global capacity, measured in available cargo tonne-kilometers (ACTK), rose by 3.7% compared to 2024, while international capacity increased by 5.1%.

IATA also reported that freight yields decreased by 1.5% year-on-year. The report highlights that this is the smallest decline in the last three years, as supply-demand balance normalizes and the extraordinarily high yields seen during and after the COVID period continue to decline. Although competitive pressures are limiting air cargo’s pricing power, freight yields remain 37.2% above 2019 levels.

Meanwhile, the report indicates that the air cargo market maintained its upward momentum in the final month of the year. In December 2025, global demand increased by 4.3% compared to December 2024, while international demand rose by 5.5%. During the same period, global capacity grew by 4.5%, and international capacity exceeded this level with a 6.4% increase.

Global Air Cargo Demand May Slow to 2.4% in 2026

IATA Director General Willie Walsh commented on the 2025 performance:

“While the strength of global e-commerce pushed volumes upward, trade with the U.S. faced rising tariffs, the removal of de minimis exemptions, and ongoing policy uncertainty. The air cargo sector adapted to these conditions; it quickly adjusted to support global businesses and supply chains. Companies supported global supply chains by front‑loading shipments before tariffs took effect and by adapting to growing demand within intra‑Asia and Asia–Europe trade lanes as U.S.–Asia trade slowed.”

Walsh added that global growth expectations for 2026 will ease to 2.4%, aligning with historical trends:

“We can expect demand to continue being shaped by trade and geopolitical developments. Whatever trade patterns emerge, we can be confident that reliance on air cargo to keep global supply chains moving will remain. Airlines will respond to the challenge by bringing capacity online and designing their networks to ensure maximum flexibility.”

The report also summarizes the main factors shaping the growth rates as follows:

• Global goods trade grew 2.5% year‑on‑year in 2024, and by 4.4% during January–November 2025.
• Jet fuel prices fell by 3.1% in December and averaged 9.1% lower in 2025 compared to 2024, although rising refinery margins limited part of this advantage.
• The global manufacturing confidence index reached 50.9 in December. New export orders, however, remained below the threshold at 49.1, reflecting tariff‑related uncertainty.

Regional Performance: Strongest Growth in Asia-Pacific

Asia-Pacific recorded the strongest performance among all regions, with air cargo demand rising 8.4% year-on-year in 2025. Capacity increased by 7.4%. In December, demand grew 9.4% year-on-year, while capacity rose 8.3%.

North America experienced a 1.3% year-on-year decline in air cargo demand in 2025, making it the only region with contraction and the weakest performer globally. Capacity fell 1.1%. In December, demand declined 2.2% and capacity 2.6%.

European airlines recorded a 2.9% annual increase in air cargo demand in 2025. Capacity rose by 3.1% during the same period. In December, demand increased 4.9% year-on-year, while capacity grew 3.9%.

In the Middle East, air cargo demand rose 0.3% year-on-year in 2025, while capacity increased 4.5%. In December, demand grew 4.2% and capacity surged 10.6%.

Latin America and the Caribbean saw a 2.3% annual increase in air cargo demand in 2025. Capacity rose 4.5%. However, in December, demand declined 4.1%, marking the weakest December performance among all regions, while capacity increased 4.5%.

African airlines achieved a 6.0% annual increase in air cargo demand in 2025. Capacity grew 7.8%. In December, demand surged 10.1% — the highest among all regions — while capacity increased 9.8%.

Traffic in Global Trade Corridors Shifted Toward Asia–Europe

An examination of global trade corridors shows a clear shift from the Asia–North America lane toward the Asia–Europe route. In 2025, CTK‑based total market shares were 35.9% for Asia-Pacific, 21.4% for Europe, 24.5% for North America, 13.2% for the Middle East, 2.9% for Latin America and the Caribbean, and 2.1% for Africa.

Among the main drivers of this shift were rising tariff pressures and the removal of the de minimis exemption in the United States. The de minimis exemption had allowed shipments valued under USD 800 to enter the U.S. duty‑free and via expedited processing.

Source: IATA