Fluctuations in Global Logistics Are Becoming the New Normal

Fluctuations in global supply chains are no longer a temporary crisis but are increasingly becoming a permanent reality for the business world. The “2026 State of Logistics Report,” published by management consulting firm Kearney and the Council of Supply Chain Management Professionals (CSCMP), clearly and comprehensively highlights this structural transformation in the sector.

According to the report, total logistics costs in the United States stood at $2.6 trillion in 2025 but declined to $2.4 trillion in 2026, with their share of GDP falling from 8.7% to 7.8%. However, this decline does not indicate a reduction in risks and uncertainties in the sector. On the contrary, the sector is evolving into a more complex and unpredictable structure.

Five Key Dynamics Shaping the Logistics Ecosystem

The report draws attention to five core dynamics that are putting pressure on and reshaping global logistics networks:

• Imbalanced growth across regions
• Tightening financial conditions
• Geoeconomic realignment
• Labor and productivity pressures
• Volatility in energy prices

While economies such as the United States, India, and Southeast Asia are gaining strong momentum, Europe and the Gulf regions are showing more limited growth performance. This creates a significant imbalance in global trade. In addition, disruptions at critical transit points such as the Strait of Hormuz and constantly evolving customs tariffs are increasing pressure on supply chains.

In this new environment, demand growth or scale alone is no longer sufficient for success for carriers and cargo owners. As traditional performance indicators lose importance, flexibility, pricing discipline, and digitalization are emerging as key pillars of sustainable competitive advantage.

Artificial Intelligence Is Now an Operational Necessity

According to the report, artificial intelligence (AI) applications in the logistics sector are moving beyond the experimental phase and starting to deliver tangible commercial value. The use of AI is rapidly expanding in critical areas such as analyzing network signals, predicting potential disruptions, and automating operational processes. While warehouse automation and autonomous transport solutions are being actively deployed, the competitive gap between companies that integrate AI into their processes and those that take a cautious approach is steadily widening.

Divergence Across Different Segments of Logistics

The report also emphasizes significant divergence across different segments of the logistics sector:

• Air Cargo: Following record growth in 2025, the market in 2026 is characterized by increasing regional divergence. While the Asia–Europe corridor is strengthening, the Asia–North America route is slowing. Rising fuel costs and geopolitical risks are pushing the sector toward higher value-added, faster, and more reliable transportation models.
• Parcel and Last-Mile Delivery: The U.S. market is undergoing a structural transformation. Regulations on low-value shipments originating from China are reducing volumes, while delivery demand is shifting toward local distribution networks. The sector is evolving into a bipolar structure consisting of low-cost regional services and premium express delivery solutions. Success in this segment increasingly depends on data integration and management capabilities rather than network size.
• 3PL (Third-Party Logistics): The sector is going through a critical strategic transformation. Customers now demand not only operational support but also 4PL-like approaches and end-to-end integrated solutions. Leading companies are investing heavily in real-time visibility and AI-driven cost management to maintain their competitive edge.
• Maritime Transport: Overcapacity remains one of the most significant challenges in the sector. New vessels entering service in 2026 are further deepening the supply-demand imbalance. Although crises in the Red Sea, the Strait of Hormuz, and the Panama Canal are driving up freight rates in the short term, volatility persists in the long run. This makes flexible contract management and scenario-based planning more critical than ever.

From Efficiency to Resilience: The Strategy of the Future

CSCMP CEO Mark Baxa states that supply chains are now evolving into dynamic systems that require continuous adaptation. As traditional business models rapidly lose relevance, much more flexible logistics networks will come to the forefront. Kearney Partner Korhan Acar also emphasizes that in the face of increasing cost pressures and geopolitical risks, companies that combine intelligent solutions with strong operational discipline are gaining a competitive advantage. In the new era, success will be shaped not only by efficiency but also by resilience and adaptability.

Digital and AI-powered logistics solutions are no longer optional—they are becoming an operational necessity in supply chains. With Shipeedy.com, you can manage your processes end-to-end in a fully digital environment and leverage the AI assistant Optichain to make faster, more accurate, and more predictable decisions.

Source: FreightWaves