Passenger Demand Declined While Air Cargo Demand Increased in April

The International Air Transport Association (IATA) has released data on the global air cargo and passenger markets for April 2026. The published figures revealed a differentiated outlook across segments in the aviation sector, once again highlighting the impact of geopolitical developments and cost pressures on industry dynamics.

Limited Growth in the Air Cargo Market

In April 2026, global air cargo demand increased by 4.0% year-over-year, measured in Cargo Tonne Kilometers (CTK). International operations also recorded the same growth rate (4.0%). In contrast, capacity declined by 0.4% based on Available Cargo Tonne Kilometers (ACTK), while international capacity decreased by 0.9%.

The cargo load factor (CLF) rose by 1.9 percentage points globally to 46.0%. This indicates that demand grew faster than capacity, positively impacting operational efficiency despite capacity constraints.

IATA Director General Willie Walsh noted that the increase in demand was primarily driven by Asia-related trade routes. He also emphasized that significant disruptions at Gulf hubs have reshaped trade routes and constrained capacity.

Decline in the Passenger Market

In April 2026, global passenger demand decreased by 3.4% year-over-year in terms of Revenue Passenger Kilometers (RPK). However, excluding the Middle East, demand increased by 1.2%. Total capacity (ASK) fell by 2.9%, while the load factor stood at 83.1%.

International passenger demand declined by 5.3%, accompanied by a 5.1% decrease in capacity. The load factor was recorded at 83.9%. In the domestic market, demand remained flat (0.0%), while capacity grew by 0.8%, resulting in a load factor of 81.9%.

According to IATA, conflicts in the Middle East led to a sharp 46.6% drop in demand among carriers in the region, making it the primary driver of the contraction in the global passenger market.

Decline in Global Trade Volume

Despite growth in the air cargo market, operational conditions remained complex in April. Global trade volume contracted by 2.1% month-on-month in March, ending a four-month growth streak. This situation highlighted the vulnerability of trade to geopolitical developments.

During the same period, jet fuel prices increased by 121.1% year-over-year, while crude oil prices rose by 77.7%. These cost pressures continued to directly affect pricing and capacity planning in the transportation sector.

Nevertheless, global production indicators showed a positive trend. The Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) rose to 53.4 in April, while the new export orders index was measured at 50.2. Both indicators remaining above the threshold of 50 signaled supportive conditions for air cargo demand.

Divergence in Regional Cargo Performance

A closer look at regional performance reveals notable differences in the air cargo market:

• Asia-Pacific: Strongest performance with 10.5% demand growth (capacity +5.3%)

• Europe: 6.0% growth (capacity +3.0%)

• North America: 5.0% increase (capacity +1.2%)

• Africa: 7.7% increase (capacity -9.4%)

• Latin America: 2.8% contraction (capacity +1.2%)

• Middle East: 18.2% decline (capacity -22.9%)

According to IATA, the Middle East stood out as the region experiencing the sharpest contraction in both demand and capacity, largely due to the reconfiguration of global trade routes.

Regional Passenger Performance

In April, significant regional differences were also observed in the passenger market:

• Asia-Pacific: +1.7%, load factor 85.1%

• Europe: +0.8%, load factor 85.4%

• Latin America: +5.0%

• Africa: +2.8%

• North America: -0.3%

• Middle East: -46.6%

Reshaping of Trade Corridors

Performance across trade routes varied notably in April. Strong growth continued on Africa–Asia (+12.8%) and Europe–Asia (+16.2%) routes, while intra-Asia traffic remained stable with a 13.0% increase.

In contrast, significant contractions were observed on Middle East-related corridors:

• Europe–Middle East: -25.9%

• Middle East–Asia: -22.4%

This trend highlighted the direct impact of geopolitical developments on global logistics networks.

Balancing Effect of Domestic Markets

Domestic passenger markets generally exhibited a balanced outlook. Growth in China, Brazil, and Japan was offset by declines in the United States, India, and Australia. In Japan, the continued contraction of capacity for eight consecutive months stood out as a notable development.

​Source: IATA, IATA